Energy bill forecast of 25% January rise means October Budget ‘cannot be a missed opportunity’

• New forecast predicts energy bills will rise by 25% from January.
• Fuel poverty charity National Energy Action¹ calls for the October Budget to include support for low-income and vulnerable households.

Bloomberg has forecast that energy bills will increase by 25% from January, returning to the heights of the 2022-23 gas price crisis.  

Fuel poverty charity National Energy Action warns that such a price increase would ratchet up hardship on already struggling low-income and vulnerable households. If the forecast is accurate, then prices would be returning to the level of the last energy crisis, when the government stepped in to protect households from harm.

The charity is calling on the government to act quickly and announce targeted measures in the October Budget to focus support on the most vulnerable households, many of whom are already in energy debt and struggling with essentials.

Matt Copeland, Interim Director of Policy at National Energy Action, says:

‘Forecasts that energy bills are to rise 25% in January are unthinkable. Last time they were at similar levels, in 2022, the government stepped in to shield households. The October Budget cannot be a missed opportunity to protect the most vulnerable households from this impending increase.

‘Millions are already burdened by energy debt and cutting back – and that’s before the cold weather hits. Energy bills jumping by a quarter during the coldest months would have a huge impact.

‘The deepest support must be focused on those facing the greatest hardship, including low-income households, families with children, disabled people, carers and others with high unavoidable energy needs. Otherwise, the most vulnerable will face yet another impossible winter.’

ENDS

Notes to editors

1. National Energy Action (NEA) is the national fuel poverty charity. We’ve worked across England, Wales, and Northern Ireland for over 40 years, to ensure that everyone can afford to live in a warm, healthy home. ​
2. Forecast: bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-15/uk-energy-bills-forecast-to-jump-25-and-drive-up-inflation
3. The price cap is shown as the annual energy bill of a ‘typical’ household. This is called the Typical Domestic Consumption Value (TDCV). Ofgem announced the TDCV is being decreased to reflect lower consumption of energy, as a result of rationing and energy efficiency measures. The new ‘typical’ household consumes 2,500 kWh of electricity and 9,500 kWh of gas per year. This is down from 2,700 kWh of electricity and 11,500 kWh of gas per year. The new TDCVs will be used to express the default tariff price cap levels in all Ofgem publications from July 2026 onwards. See Ofgem explainer.
4. The fully funded Energy Bill Support Scheme was announced in May 2022 when the price cap, from April to July 2022, was at £1,971 for the typical household. The scheme ran from October 2022 to March 2023.

If this goes online, please link to https://www.nea.org.uk/energy-crisis/. We are on Twitter/X: @NEA_UKCharity and Bluesky: @nea.org.uk.